Summer 2017, Volume 1 - Number 2 (11 صفحه - از 20 تا 30)
Analyzing different scenarios for exporting natural gas and electricity is the main subject in this paper. The place of Iran as the owner of second largest reserves of natural gas in the world and exporting it to different countries increase the notability of this study. On the other hand, in the restructured power system, the role of natural gas is growing in the electricity generation. This paper analyzes exporting natural gas and electricity via three scenarios, including 1) direct transfer of natural gas at real time and forward prices, 2) exporting the electricity, considering fuel payment and without fuel cost and 3) conversion of natural gas into electricity and transferring via the power market. Markove Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is applied for modelling the natural gas price during the studied time horizon. In this regard, the scenarios are analyzed via system dynamics. Published data by energy information administration (EIA) about natural gas price, the costs of generation by different technologies and plans for exporting the natural gas and electricity are used in this study. The results show that exporting the natural gas or the electricity in suitable forward price are the most profitable scenarios. Transferring the natural gas at real time price is profitable, while exporting the electricity at the real time price of power market can not meet the economic goals, even by expanding the renewable resources. © 2017 Journal of Energy Management and Technologyخلاصه ماشینی:
"Published data by energy information administration (EIA) about natural gas price, the costs of generation by different technologies and plans for exporting the natural gas and electricity are used in this study. In this regard, different scenarios including direct export of natural gas, converting into the electricity and exporting via the power market is considered; sale at forward and real time prices and the expansion of renewable resources are different studied situa- tions. The results are explanatory that exporting the natural gas and electricity at a suitable forward price not only compensates the costs but also generate profit, while ex- porting via the market decreases the profit and cannot make up for investment in transmission lines. Four technologies including coal-fired, CCGT, GT and wind turbine compete in the power market and the natural gas based technologies allocate a part of their capacity to the exported electricity. The second scenario studies export of electricity in a forward price instead of natural gas and considers the energy conversion with and without fuel cost. On the other hand, paying the real time price of natural gas used by the CCGT and selling the electricity in a forward price de- creases the profit, but recovers the investment costs of generation and transmission. Ali Movahednasab, Masoud Rashidinejad and Amir Abdol- lahi, " A system dynamics analysis of the long run invest- ment in market-based electric generation expansion with renewable resources", International Transactions on Electri- cal Energy Systems, February 2017, DOI: 10."
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